Category: Economic Indicators

National employment situation numbers released this morning show payroll employment increasing by only 98,000 and the unemployment rate decreasing 0.2 percentage points to 4.5 percent. The professional and business services sector saw the largest growth at an additional 56,000 jobs and for the second straight month, retail trade lost nearly 30,000. Total employment is up 2.18 million from March 2016. 

The relatively small jobs growth could be due to large February jobs numbers, boosted by unseasonably good weather across the country, as well as the late snow storm in the upper midwest and northeast in March that possibly suppressed some seasonal hiring. Other measures of the economy remain strong, so a slowdown of one month is no cause for concern.

The unemployment rate is now at its lowest point since May 2007 as the economy gets closer to full employment. The better news lies in the U-6 unemployment rate decreasing 0.3 percentage points to 8.9 percent (includes marginally attached workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons). As the gap shrinks between the unemployment rate (U-3) and the U-6 rate we see the number of underemployed and discouraged workers decrease.

New metropolitan area employment and unemployment numbers released today show continued job growth for the Washington region with  18,300 jobs added in February. This is an increase of 62,400 jobs over February 2016, with the sectors of Professional & Business Services and Leisure & Hospitality leading the pack. The unemployment rate remains constant at 3.9 percent, below the nation rate of 4.7.

Between February 2016 and February 2017, Suburban Maryland saw its largest job growth since 2000, adding 31,900 jobs. February annualized employment change in the District and Northern Virginia remains similar to recent months. The unemployment rate in DC ticks slightly higher to 6.1 percent and remains the highest in the region. Northern Virginia unemployment moved down to 3.3 percent, while Suburban Maryland and the region as a whole remain steady at 3.9 percent.

Of notable concern due to the current policy environment, federal government jobs in the region remain steady but are trending downward. We will continue to monitor these numbers closely. March national employment numbers are scheduled to be released this Friday (April 7th) and regional employment numbers for March on May 3rd.

For our complete set of indicators click here

From WAMU

President Donald Trump’s initial budget proposal does not explicitly attack funding for the D.C. region’s transit agency, but if the plan’s aim of shrinking the federal workforce is realized, Metro could be damaged at a time when it needs every possible rider.

Metro’s average weekday ridership is at its lowest level since 2003. System leaders are anticipating that some commuters will return in the summer after the disruptive SafeTrack rebuilding program ends and reliability improves, but a ridership recovery could be undercut if the Republican-led Congress goes along with the president’s proposal to dismantle parts of the federal bureaucracy.

“If you were to look at some of the more dramatic elements of the Trump proposal, we’re talking in terms of what might be that 20,000 to 25,000 federal jobs that would disappear,” said economist Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University. A loss of that magnitude would cost Metro several thousand trips per day.

Read more here

February National employment numbers were released this morning, providing the first picture of employment numbers under the Trump presidency. The US economy added 235,000 jobs and unemployment remained relatively unchanged at 4.7%, down from 4.8% in January. All sectors grew from February of last year except the information sector, which has seen consistent decline in the past year. Both labor force participation rate and the U-6 unemployment rate have remained steady at 63% and 9.2% respectively.

January employment numbers for the Washington Region MSA will be released in one week on Friday, March 17th. Expect an update from CRA on the region’s economy at that time.